Most of what you sell in December is decided by what you order in the next few weeks. Work through this list before the seasonal ranges start arriving.
Start with last year's numbers
Pull last year's October to December sales by line. Export them from your EPOS or Seller Central and sort by units, not category. Note which lines ran out and when, because a gap in mid-December hides what you could have sold. Then adjust for this year: the BRC's August figures had total retail sales up just 0.7 per cent on last year, with shoppers cutting big-ticket spending but still treating themselves in health and beauty.
Fix everyday essentials first. Toothpaste, shampoo, nappies, painkillers and washing-up liquid keep people coming through the door in December. Set a minimum shelf level for your top 50 lines and order to it before you spend anything on seasonal stock. A missing staple sends customers to the supermarket, and their gift spending goes with them.
Gift sets and seasonal packs
Commit now on proven sets only. Repeat orders on seasonal packs are not guaranteed once a run sells through, so secure the sets that sold out last year. Hold back on untried lines until you have two or three weeks of early sales.
Size the order to what sells by mid-December. Gift sets lose most of their appeal on Boxing Day. The BRC's commentary on last Christmas noted that health and beauty was among the gifting categories where sales fell as shoppers tightened their purse strings. Order to last year's sell-through, not last year's delivery, with a smaller November top-up if early sales run ahead.
Write the markdown plan before the stock lands. Set the dates and price steps now, such as a first reduction the week before Christmas and clearance pricing in early January, rather than deciding on 27 December.
Cash, dispatch and carrier weeks
Put payment dates next to expected takings. Christmas stock is paid for weeks before it sells. If your VAT quarter ends on 30 September, the return and payment are normally due by 7 November, just as seasonal invoices arrive. Sole traders and partners then face the Self Assessment payment deadline of 31 January 2027, straight after the January lull.
Plan around the busy carrier weeks. Black Friday is 27 November and Cyber Monday 30 November, and parcel networks stay under pressure from then until Christmas. Christmas Day is a Friday, with the Boxing Day bank holiday moved to Monday 28 December. Our orders are dispatched within 48 hours, but transit times stretch in those weeks, so have seasonal stock on shelf by mid-November and place December top-ups early in the week.
Clear space and check the autumn rule changes
Move dead stock out first. Anything that has not sold in eight weeks is holding shelf space and cash that Christmas lines need, and the quarterly audit in our margins checklist will find it. FBA sellers should act before 1 October: Amazon's UK monthly storage fee for most standard-size, non-dangerous goods rises from £0.76 to £1.51 per cubic foot from October to December, and units stored for more than 241 days also attract an aged inventory surcharge.
The HFSS on-pack sell-through ends on 30 September. In England, less healthy food and drink with a volume promotion printed on the pack, such as "50 per cent extra free", can be sold up to and including that day. Businesses in scope are those with 50 or more employees, and a franchised store can count as part of the franchisor's business, so check which side you fall on.
Vaping duty stamps start on 1 October. Vaping Products Duty begins that day at £2.20 per 10ml. Unstamped stock produced or imported before 1 October can be sold until 31 March 2027, so do not stock up on unstamped lines you cannot clear by then.